2021-08-12 彭博情報稱黃金的拋售是牛市中的下跌，黃金價格躍升至1,750美元以上
Gold price jumps above $1,750 as Bloomberg Intelligence says gold's selloff is a dip in a bull market彭博情報稱黃金的拋售是牛市中的下跌，黃金價格躍升至 1,750 美元以上
Anna Golubova
Wednesday August 11, 2021
The sudden drop in gold this week, which saw prices tumble from $1,820 an ounce to below $1,700 an ounce, is just a dip in a bullish trend, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
根據彭博資訊的數據，本周金價突然下跌，價格從每盎司 1,820 美元跌至每盎司 1,700 美元以下，這只是看漲趨勢中的一個小跌。
"Gold backing up to its upward-sloping 24-month moving average in what we see as a dip in a bull market," said Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. "When the distortions of 2020-21 subside, a resumption of pre-pandemic trends is likely, which favors gold's upward course vs. crude's descent."
“黃金回升至向上傾斜的24個月移動平均線，我們認為這是牛市的下跌，”彭博情報高級商品策略師邁克麥格隆表示。“當2020-21年的扭曲消退時，大流行前的趨勢可能會恢復，這有利於黃金的上漲趨勢而不是原油的下跌。”
Gold's enduring gold market is far from over, especially in light of the continued quantitative easing and the current debt-to-GDP ratio.
黃金經久不衰的黃金市場遠未結束，特別是考慮到持續的量化寬鬆政策和當前的債務與GDP之比。
"It's the near-certainty of rising U.S. debt-to-GDP and increasing dependence on quantitative easing that keeps our gold-price bias bullish, notably on the back of a good discount from the 2020 peak," McGlone noted.
麥格隆指出：“美國債務與GDP之比的上升以及對量化寬鬆政策的依賴日益增加，這幾乎可以肯定，這使我們的金價偏向看漲，尤其是在較2020年峰值大幅折價的背景下。”
Gold is already on its way to a substantial recovery, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,754.30, up 1.31% on the day.
黃金已經開始大幅回升，Comex12月黃金期貨最後交易價為1,754.30美元，當日上漲1.31%。
One of the drivers that could take gold back to record highs of above $2,000 an ounce, which were last seen about a year ago, is a drop in the stock market, McGlone pointed out.
麥格隆指出，推動黃金回升至每盎司2,000美元以上的紀錄高位的一個驅動因素是股市下跌，這是大約一年前的最後一次出現。
"A potential catalyst for gold to breach $2,000-an-ounce resistance is a bit of reversion in the stock market and continued decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields from the March peak," he said. "We see gold more likely to approach $2,000 resistance than sustain below $1,700 support in 2H. Like bonds, the metal may provide a hedge vs. a rise in stock-market volatility."
“黃金突破每盎司2,000美元阻力位的一個潛在催化劑是股市出現一點逆轉，以及美國國債收益率從3月份的高點持續下跌，”他說。“我們認為黃金更有可能在2小時內接近2,000美元的阻力位，而不是維持在1,700美元的支撐位下方。與債券一樣，黃金可能會在股市波動性上升的情況下提供對沖。”
Also, McGlone sees gold outperforming commodities like crude oil. "Gold has firm underpinnings from its limited supply and its status as a store-of-value diversifier in the race to debase among fiat currencies. Juxtaposed is the world's most significant commodity -- oil -- facing declining demand vs. rising supply as technology advances and demographics shift," he said.
此外，麥格隆認為黃金的表現優於原油等大宗商品。“在法定貨幣貶值的競爭中，黃金的供應有限，以及作為價值儲存多元化者的地位，黃金具有堅實的基礎。並列的是世界上最重要的商品——石油——面臨需求下降與供應增加的技術進步和人口結構變化，”他說。
However, gold bulls can't forget about the increased competition from bitcoin, which is back above $46,000 this week and is on its way to $50,000, McGlone added.
然而，黃金多頭不能忘記來自比特幣的競爭加劇，本週比特幣回到 46,000 美元以上，並且正在向50,000美元邁進，McGlone補充道。
By Anna Golubova
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引用: Kitco News
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