2021-05-19 黃金是對的
Gold Is Right黃金是對的
Dear Reader,
親愛的讀者，
Is the gold skid over? There are encouraging signs that the answer is yes. And, that’s great news for patient gold investors (especially those who bought the lows, as I recommended to my subscribers a few weeks ago).
黃金滑落了嗎？有令人鼓舞的跡象表明答案是肯定的。而且，對於耐心的黃金投資者（尤其是那些購買低點的投資者，這是我幾個星期前向訂戶推薦的投資者）而言，這是個好消息。
First, some facts. Gold hit an all-time high of $2,069 per ounce on August 6, 2020. Since then, it has been on the skids, despite occasional rallies. The low in this cycle was $1,678 per ounce on March 8, 2021.
首先，一些事實。黃金在2020年8月6日創下了每盎司2,069美元的歷史新高。此後，儘管偶爾出現反彈，但黃金一直在下滑。 2021年3月8日，該週期的低點為每盎司1,678美元。
The reason for the skid was not hard to discern.
滑倒的原因並不難辨別。
It’s often the case that gold prices get pushed around by a number of factors, including real rates, nominal rates, geopolitical concerns, inflation and simple supply and demand.
通常情況下，金價受多種因素推動，包括實際利率，名義利率，地緣政治問題，通貨膨脹以及簡單的供求關係。
But, this decline had only one factor — rising nominal rates on the ten-year Treasury note.
但是，這種下降只有一個因素-十年期美國國債的名義利率上升。
Ten-year note rates hit an interim low of 0.508% on August 4, 2020, right around the same time gold peaked. From there, rates began a relentless march higher. The nominal yield on the ten-year note peaked at 1.745% on March 31, 2021.
十年期國債利率在2020年8月4日觸及0.508％的中期低點，大約在同一時間黃金達到頂峰。從那裡開始，利率開始無情地上漲。十年期國債的名義收益率在2021年3月31日達到1.745％的峰值。
The rate/gold inverse correlation was extremely high. As rates climbed from August to March, gold fell. Nothing else mattered, including the election, the Capitol Hill riots or confiscatory tax plans.
比率/金的逆相關性非常高。隨著利率從8月至3月攀升，黃金下跌。沒什麼要緊的，包括選舉，國會山暴動或沒收稅收計劃。
Rates rose, gold fell, enough said. The question for analysts was, why were rates rising?
利率上升，黃金下跌，足夠說。分析師的問題是，為什麼利率會上升？
Gold Isn’t Supposed to Offer Yield
黃金本不應該提供收益
Again, the explanation was simple. Markets were watching the $900 billion Trump bailout in December, the $1.9 trillion Biden bailout in early March, and the announcement of plans for another $3 trillion bailout later this year.
同樣，解釋很簡單。市場正在關注特朗普在12月進行的9000億美元救助，3月初進行的1.9萬億美元的拜登（Biden）救助，以及今年晚些時候宣布再進行3萬億美元救助計劃的公告。
The reasoning was, with that much money being pumped into the economy and with output capacity still limited by the pandemic shutdowns, inflation must be right around the corner. Rates rose in anticipation of inflation from all of the bailout spending.
原因是，由於有大量資金注入經濟，而產能仍受到大流行停產的限制，因此通貨膨脹必將迫在眉睫。由於所有救助支出都將導致通貨膨脹，因此利率上升。
When rates rise, gold often falls because Treasury securities and gold compete for investor dollars. As rates rose, the Treasury notes became more attractive, and gold less so because gold has no yield.
當利率上升時，黃金經常下跌，因為國庫券和黃金競相爭奪投資者美元。隨著利率上升，美國國庫券變得更具吸引力，而黃金則變得不那麼吸引人了，因為黃金沒有收益。
By the way, some people criticize gold because it doesn’t offer any yield. But gold is not supposed to have any yield because it’s money; you only get yield when you take risks on securities, money markets or bank deposits. But that’s a story for another day.
順便說一句，有人批評黃金，因為它沒有提供任何收益。但是，黃金不應該產生任何收益，因為它是金錢。只有在承擔證券，貨幣市場或銀行存款的風險時，您才能獲得收益。但這是另一回事了。
Still, there was a conundrum at the heart of this inverse correlation.
但是，這種逆相關的核心仍然是一個難題。
Sure, rising rates might make for competition for investor allocations that hurts the price of gold. But, if rates were rising because of inflationary expectations, wouldn’t gold rally because of the inflation?
當然，利率上升可能會加劇競爭，損害了金價。但是，如果由於通貨膨脹預期而導致利率上升，難道不是因為通貨膨脹而導致黃金上漲了嗎？
Gold Sees Further Than Any Other Asset
黃金比其他任何資產具有更大的價值
To resolve the conundrum, we have to bear in mind that gold has a better track record of predicting economic developments than any other asset class. Gold looks so far ahead that investors often cannot see what the gold price is saying.
為了解決這個難題，我們必須牢記，與其他任何資產類別相比，黃金在預測經濟發展方面都有更好的記錄。黃金的前景如此之遙，以至於投資者常常看不到金價在說什麼。
The point is that rates were rising on inflationary expectations, but there was no actual inflation. Hard data (as opposed to Wall Street analysis) showed that most of the bailout money was not being spent.
關鍵是利率在通貨膨脹預期的基礎上上升，但沒有實際的通貨膨脹。硬數據（與華爾街分析相對）表明，大部分救助資金都沒有用完。
Over 76% of the bailout money was used either for savings or to pay down debt (which is economically the same thing as saving). Neither saving nor debt repayment constitutes new consumption. And, without consumption, there is no velocity and no upward pressure on prices.
超過76％的救助資金用於儲蓄或償還債務（從經濟上講，這與儲蓄是一回事）。儲蓄和還債都不構成新的消費。而且，沒有消費，就不會有速度，也不會對價格產生上行壓力。
In short, interest rates were predicting inflation, but gold prices were saying: Not so fast!
簡而言之，利率在預測通脹，但是金價卻在說：還不算快！
This wasn't our first interest rate fake-out. The 10-year note hit 3.96% on April 2, 2010. It then fell to 2.41% by October 2, 2010. It spiked again to 3.75% on February 8, 2011, before falling sharply to 1.49% on July 24, 2012.
這不是我們第一次假冒利率。 10年期國債在2010年4月2日達到3.96％。然後在2010年10月2日跌至2.41％。在2011年2月8日再次飆升至3.75％，然後在2012年7月24日急劇跌至1.49％。
It spiked again, hitting 3.22% on November 2, 2018, before plummeting to 0.56% on August 3, 2020, one of the greatest rallies in note prices ever.
它再次飆升，在2018年11月2日達到3.22％，然後在2020年8月3日暴跌至0.56％，這是有史以來最大的票據價格反彈之一。
There’s a pattern in this time series called “lower highs and lower lows.” The highs were 3.96%, 3.75% and 3.22%. The lows were 2.41%, 1.49% and 0.56%.
在此時間序列中，有一個模式稱為“較低的高點和較低的低點”。最高點是3.96％，3.75％和3.22％。最低點為2.41％，1.49％和0.56％。
The point is that the note market does back up from time to time. And when it does, it cannot hold the prior rate highs and eventually sinks to new rate lows.
關鍵是，票據市場確實會不時地回升。而且當它這樣做時，它無法保持先前的利率高點，最終陷入新的利率低點。
So Much for One Million New Jobs
一百萬個新工作有這麼多
Starting several months ago, my forecast predicted that eventually, markets would see that inflation was not emerging, interest rates would beat a retreat and gold prices would regain their former shine.
我的預測從幾個月前開始，最終預測到市場將不會出現通貨膨脹，利率將回落，金價將恢復昔日的光彩。
That appears to be happening. Recent data shows the core PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) was only 1.6%, well short of the Fed’s 2% goal (which they’ve failed to hit on a sustained basis for 13 years).
那似乎正在發生。最新數據顯示，核心PCE平減指數（美聯儲的首選通脹指標）僅為1.6％，遠低於美聯儲2％的目標（13年來他們一直未能實現這一目標）。
The 1.6% showing was well within the range that core PCE has exhibited for years. In other words, no inflation.
1.6％的展示率完全處於PCE核心多年來展示的範圍之內。換句話說，沒有通貨膨脹。
Other economic signs have been disturbing, including a fourth wave of coronavirus cases and rising initial claims for unemployment insurance.
其他經濟跡像也令人不安，包括第四次冠狀病毒病例以及對失業保險的初次索賠上升。
The April 15 measure showed improvement, but the most recent jobs report was a huge miss. Economists expected the economy would add at least one million jobs in April. The numbers only showed a gain of 266,000.
4月15日的措施表明情況有所改善，但最新的就業報告卻大失所望。經濟學家預計，四月份經濟將至少增加一百萬個工作崗位。該數字僅顯示了266,000的增長。
Interest rates dropped from 1.745% on March 31 to 1.69% today. That’s an almost 17 basis point drop in just over two weeks, an earthquake in bond land.
利率從3月31日的1.745％下跌至今天的1.69％。在債卷的大地震中，僅兩週時間就下降了將近17個基點。
Gold responded right on cue, rallying from $1,686 per ounce on March 30 to $1,824 per ounce today. That’s a solid 5% gain in the same two-week span.
黃金的反應是正確的，從3月30日的每盎司1,686美元上漲到今天的每盎司1,824美元。在同一兩週的時間裡，收益增長了5％。
Heads, Gold Wins; Tails, Gold Doesn’t Lose
正面，黃金勝利；反面，黃金也不會輸掉
The rate/gold inverse correlation continues, except now it’s working in reverse with rates down and gold prices up. I expect this trend to continue because there are still no signs of inflation on the horizon.
利率/金價的反比關係仍在繼續，除了現在它在利率下降而金價上漲時正處於反向作用。我預計這一趨勢將繼續下去，因為仍然沒有通貨膨脹的跡象。
Inflation will come, but not right away. Looking further ahead, gold is poised for major gains in response to the rise of inflation expected in 2022 and later.
通貨膨脹將到來，但不會馬上到來。展望未來，黃金有望獲得重大收益，以應對2022年及以後的通脹預期。
This inflation will not be caused by so-called money printing. An expansion of the money supply without accompanying changes in saver psychology that affect velocity or other exogenous catalysts has little impact on consumer prices.
這種膨脹不會由所謂的印鈔引起。貨幣供應量的增加，而不會伴隨儲蓄者心理的變化而影響速度或其他外在因素，對消費者價格的影響很小。
The driver of inflation is velocity, the turnover of money caused by lending and spending, which has been plunging for over ten years.
通貨膨脹的驅動因素是速度，即藉貸和支出引起的貨幣周轉率，已經持續了十多年的暴跌。
Still, an external catalyst of velocity will arrive soon and last for decades in the form of higher wages needed to offset declining working-age populations in China, Japan, Europe, Russia and the U.S. This wage increase will be driven in part by the diversion of workers to healthcare for seniors, which is needed work but not amenable to productivity increases.
儘管如此，速度的外部催化劑將以更高的工資形式出現並持續數十年，以抵消中國，日本，歐洲，俄羅斯和美國工作年齡人口的減少。工人為老年人提供醫療保健，這是必需的工作，但不適合提高生產力。
Once this demographic wave hits, saver psychology will shift quickly, and cost-push inflation will feed on itself. Inflation combined with decreased confidence in central bank command money will move gold to $10,000 per ounce or higher. That is the implied non-deflationary price of gold needed to act as a backstop for command money.
一旦人口統計浪潮襲來，儲蓄者的心理就會迅速轉變，推動成本的通貨膨脹將自食其力。通貨膨脹加上對央行命令資金信心下降，將使黃金升至每盎司10,000美元或更高。那就是隱含的非通縮黃金價格需要用作命令資金的支持。
As a reality check, I always ask myself what would happen if I’m wrong? In the event that inflation does roll in, gold would go up as it always does in inflation.
作為現實檢查，我總是問自己，如果我錯了會怎樣？如果通脹確實出現，黃金將像通貨膨脹一樣上漲。
The worst position was rising rates on inflation expectations with no actual inflation. That’s over. Now it appears we have declining rates and no inflation. That’s good for gold. If inflation shows up, that’s good for gold too.
最糟糕的情況是通脹預期上的利率上升，而沒有實際的通脹。結束了。現在看來，我們的利率正在下降，而沒有通貨膨脹。這對黃金很有好處。如果出現通貨膨脹，那對黃金也有好處。
It’s heads we win, tails we don’t lose. It doesn’t get any better for gold investors.
投擲錢幣打賭，如果是正面我們贏，如果是反面我們也不輸。對於黃金投資者來說，情況沒有損失反而更好。
Regards,
Jim Rickards
吉姆·里卡茲
Jim Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He was the principal negotiator of the rescue of Long-Term Capital.
吉姆·里卡茲（Jim Rickards）是美國律師，經濟學家和投資銀行家，在華爾街的資本市場工作已有35年的經驗。他是拯救長期資本的首席談判代表。
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Jim Rickards for Hard Assets Alliance
*文章內容為筆者個人見解，僅供參考。恕不代表本站立場
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