2021-05-05 釋放通貨膨脹的“精靈”使黃金價格上漲 - Ned Davis Research
Unleashed inflation 'genie' to send gold prices higher - Ned Davis Research釋放通貨膨脹的“精靈”使黃金價格上漲 - Ned Davis Research
Neils Christensen
Tuesday May 04, 2021 15:05
The gold market is struggling to find enough bullish momentum to break its chains and push above $1,800 an ounce; however, one market analyst says that it is now time to focus on the precious metal's long-term potential as inflation pressures start to rise.
黃金市場正努力尋找足夠的看漲勢頭來打破其鏈條阻力並推高至每盎司1,800美元以上。然而，一位市場分析師表示，隨著通脹壓力開始上升，現在是時候關注貴金屬的長期潛力了。
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, said that after gold's dismal performance in the first quarter, he is now turning bullish on gold, shifting from a neutral position.
內德·戴維斯研究（Ned Davis Research）首席全球投資策略師蒂姆·海斯（Tim Hayes）在最近接受Kitco News採訪時表示，在第一季度黃金表現不佳之後，從中立立場轉向，他現在開始看漲黃金。
He said that he sees potential for gold to resume its long-term uptrend as inflation picks. While the U.S. economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, Hayes said that the increased activity will come with higher consumer prices.
他說，他認為隨著通貨膨脹的增長，黃金有可能恢復長期的上升趨勢。 Hayes表示，雖然美國經濟繼續從COVID-19大流行中復蘇，但活動的增加將伴隨著消費者價格的上漲。
"The Federal Reserve has said it wants inflation to run above their target, and the risk is that as they let inflation run, they will end up behind the curve. It will be very disruptive for the market when they do start to react," he said. "Inflation is the genie in the bottle, and once it is let loose, it is difficult to get back in."
“美聯儲已經表示希望通貨膨脹率超過目標，而風險是隨著通貨膨脹率的上升，它們最終將落在曲線後面。當市場開始做出反應時，這將對市場造成極大的破壞。”他說。 “通貨膨脹是瓶子裡的魔鬼，一旦放開它，就很難恢復原狀。”
If investors are wondering just how high inflation could get, Hayes said that they only have to look at what is happening in commodity markets. Lumber prices, copper and food prices have skyrocketed to record and multi-year highs in recent weeks.
Hayes noted that of the 17 commodities in the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index, all of them, except for gold, are trading above their 200-day moving averages.
海斯說，如果投資者想知道通貨膨脹率到底有多高，他們只需要看一下大宗商品市場中正在發生的事情。最近幾週，木材價格，銅價和食品價格飛漲至創紀錄的多年高點。
海斯指出，在商品研究局（CRB）指數中的17種商品中，除黃金外，所有其他商品的交易均高於其200天移動平均線。
"Gold was the only commodity that was doing anything back in 2019. It kind of got ahead of itself last year. Now we have seen a correction. Now with everything happening in commodity markets, I think we start to see gold participate in this broader market rally," he said. "When you look at what is happening within the broader commodity market, this is a sign something is going to happen with inflation."
“黃金是唯一一種在2019年做任何事情的商品。去年它已經領先於自己。現在我們已經看到了一種修正。現在在商品市場上發生的一切都在發生，我認為我們開始看到黃金參與了這一更廣泛的領域市場反彈，”他說。 “當你觀察大宗商品市場內正在發生的事情時，這標誌著通貨膨脹將要發生的事情。”
Hayes also said that it is difficult to see how inflation doesn't pick up as the amount of money that has been pumped into the economy and financial markets has wholly overshadowed the measures taken during the 2008 financial crisis.
海耶斯還表示，很難看到通貨膨脹率不會回升，因為註入經濟和金融市場的資金數量完全掩蓋了2008年金融危機期間採取的措施。
Some analysts have warned that rising commodity prices could lead to an inflation shock similar to what was seen in the 1970s; however, Hayes said that he doesn't see that dramatic of a rise. He added that while inflation pressures will rise, the uptrend lasting for two or three years. He noted that his continuous inflation will be very supportive for gold in the long term.
一些分析家警告說，大宗商品價格上漲可能導致類似於1970年代的通貨膨脹衝擊。但是，海耶斯說，他沒有看到那種戲劇性的上升趨勢。他補充說，儘管通脹壓力將上升，但上升趨勢持續了兩三年。他指出，從長遠來看，持續的通貨膨脹將對黃金非常有利。
While Hayes said that he doesn't have a price target for gold, he does expect prices to push significantly higher in the next two to three years.
儘管海耶斯說他沒有黃金的價格目標，但他確實希望金價在未來兩到三年內會大幅上漲。
"Gold can go a lot higher from here; we're not just looking at record highs," he said. "Once we get a breakout, it will bring in a whole new group of investors who will start to buy into the idea that they need gold as an inflation hedge."
他說：“黃金可以從這裡走高很多；我們不僅在尋找歷史高點，”。 “一旦突破，它將吸引一批全新的投資者，他們將開始接受他們認為需要黃金作為通脹對沖工具的想法。”
Along with rising inflation keeping real interest rates in negative territory, Hayes said another major factor for gold will be a weaker U.S. dollar. He added that he sees signs that the U.S. dollar is reestablishing its long-term downtrend as the U.S. government continues to increase its deficit spending. He noted that this year the deficit has ballooned to more than $4 trillion.
海斯說，隨著通貨膨脹率上升，實際利率保持在負數水平，黃金的另一個主要因素將是美元疲軟。他補充說，他認為有跡象表明，隨著美國政府繼續增加其赤字支出，美元正在重新建立其長期下降趨勢。他指出，今年的赤字已激增至超過4萬億美元。
By Neils Christensen
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News
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