2020-12-24 2021年美元前景：
U.S. dollar outlook 2021: 'Significant weakness' in store for greenback as global economy recovers – analysts2021年美元前景：隨著全球經濟復甦，美元儲備“顯著疲軟” –分析師
Anna Golubova Wednesday December 23, 2020 17:31
(Kitco News) With the global economy recovering next year, the U.S. dollar will face more downward pressure as investors opt for riskier assets and the Federal Reserve keeps rates near zero, according to analysts.
（Kitco新聞）分析師稱，隨著明年全球經濟復甦，美元將面臨更大的下行壓力，因為投資者選擇風險較高的資產，而美聯準會將利率維持在零附近。
The U.S. dollar's widely expected decline was put on hold at the beginning of 2020 as many embraced the greenback for its safe-haven qualities. In March, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) peaked above the 102 mark. However, since then, the DXY has been sliding and most recently trading near 2.5-year lows, which is below the 90 mark.
美元的普遍預期跌勢在2020年初被擱置，因為許多人因其避險性質而接受美元。 3月，美元指數（DXY）達到102點上方的峰值。然而，此後，DXY一直在下滑，最近交易於2.5年低點附近，該低點低於90點。
Analysts are not ruling out some more U.S. dollar strength in the first quarter of next year, but many are confident that the overall trend for 2021 will be downwards.
分析師並沒有排除明年第一季度美元進一步走強的趨勢，但許多人相信2021年的總體趨勢將呈下降趨勢。
The COVID-19 pandemic has only paused the U.S. dollar's inevitable decline, said Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist Marc Chandler.
Bannockburn Global Forex首席市場策略師馬克·錢德勒（Marc Chandler）表示，COVID-19大流行只是暫時阻止了美元不可避免的下跌。
"The dollar was sought not only as a safe haven, but the unwinding of structured trades that used the dollar to fund the purchase of higher-yielding or more volatile assets (think emerging markets, for example) also lifted the dollar broadly," Chandler pointed out.
錢德勒說：“不僅尋求美元作為避風港，而且利用美元為購買收益率更高或更具波動性的資產（例如，認為新興市場）提供資金的結構性交易的平息也廣泛提振了美元。”
Now that the emergency demand for dollars has subsided, the greenback's downtrend can resume, he added, noting that the U.S. dollar's third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods is over.
他補充說，由於對美元的緊急需求已經平息，美元的下跌趨勢可以恢復，他指出，自布雷頓體系結束以來，美元的第三次重要反彈已經結束。
"While we may have been early on the dollar bear call, it has become the consensus view … It seems the bearish outlook can be framed as a return of the twin-deficits. A large current account and budget deficit do not always translate into a depreciating dollar, but this time it likely will. The U.S. is not expected to offer the interest rate or growth differentials that attract the world's savings at current prices," Chandler explained.
“雖然我們可能早早開始了美元空頭呼籲，但它已經成為共識。……看跌前景似乎可以看作是雙赤字的回報。大量的經常賬戶和預算赤字並不總是轉化為美元赤字。錢幣貶值，但這次有可能。美國不希望提供以當前價格吸引世界儲蓄的利率或增長差異。”
The main drivers behind the dollar's bear market are massive money printing, inflation, economic recovery, risk-on sentiment, and loose monetary policy.
美元熊市背後的主要驅動力是大規模的貨幣印刷，通貨膨脹，經濟復甦，風險情緒和寬鬆的貨幣政策。
"Dollar will weaken given the huge amount of debt and money printing in the U.S.," said Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates managing partner Leigh Goehring.
TD Securities strategists pointed out that, in the short-term, the U.S. dollar could benefit from still surging new coronavirus cases, potential new lockdowns, and a pause in the economic recovery this winter.
Goehring＆Rozencwajg Associates管理合夥人Leigh Goehring表示：“鑑於美國大量的債務和印鈔，美元將走弱
道明證券的策略師指出，短期內，新的冠狀病毒病例激增，潛在的新封鎖以及今冬經濟復甦的暫停可能會使美元受益。
"With the DXY index trading at its lowest levels in more than two years, we think a lot of the bad news for the dollar is now in the price. With the U.S. election and promising vaccine news behind us, investor attention could revert to macro fundamentals and the still-harsh realities of rising COVID infection rates worldwide," the strategists said.
“隨著DXY指數處於兩年多以來的最低水平，我們認為美元現在面臨許多壞消息。隨著美國大选和疫苗新聞的到來，投資者的注意力可能會回到宏觀上。基本面以及全球COVID感染率上升的嚴峻現實。”
This uncertainty could last up to four months, noted ING chief international economist James Knightley. "COVID-19 cases are rising sharply, and containment measures are being re-introduced at a heavy economic cost. This window of vulnerability could last more than two, three, or even four months during which restrictions on movement could push up unemployment and weaken activity," Knightley said.
Later in the year, however, the reflation trade will take over and weigh on the dollar, TD's strategists noted.
ING首席國際經濟學家James Knightley指出，這種不確定性可能持續長達四個月。 “ COVID-19病例急劇上升，遏制措施正在以沉重的經濟代價重新採用。這種脆弱的窗口可能持續超過兩個，三個甚至四個月，在此期間，行動限制可能會推高失業率並削弱失業率。活動”，奈特利說。 TD策略師指出，在今年晚些時候，通貨膨脹交易將接管美元，並拖累美元。
"We expect the USD secular downtrend to persist, reflecting vaccines and eventual behavioral immunity that reinvigorates the reflation trade," they said. "With the USD trading at about a 10% premium to its longer-term fundamentals, we look for the dollar to depreciate steadily over the course of next year."
他們說：“我們預計美元的長期下降趨勢將持續，反映出疫苗和最終的行為免疫力使通貨膨脹貿易重新煥發活力。” “由於美元的交易價格比其長期基本面溢價約10％，我們希望美元在明年的時間內穩定貶值。”
On top of that, money printing mixed in with economic recovery and increased consumer demand could also trigger inflation, taking away the U.S. dollar's purchasing power, the analysts highlighted.
分析師們強調，最重要的是，印鈔與經濟復甦以及消費者需求增加混在一起，也可能引發通貨膨脹，奪走美元的購買力。
"In terms of what this means for markets – the focus will remain on so-called reflation trades. As global investment opportunities improve, our FX team believes the 'safe-haven' dollar will come under sustained downward pressure," said Knightley. "Inflation may also start to make an appearance in the second half of 2021 with vibrant demand coming up against pandemic induced supply constraints in many sectors."
奈特利說：“就市場的意義而言，重點仍將放在所謂的通貨緊縮交易上。隨著全球投資機會的改善，我們的外匯團隊認為，'避險'美元將承受持續的下行壓力。” “通貨膨脹也可能在2021年下半年開始出現，旺盛的需求將抵制大流行引起的許多部門的供應限制。”
In response, the Fed is likely to let inflation run hot after adopting its new flexible average inflation targeting.
作為回應，美聯儲在採用新的靈活的平均通脹目標之後，很可能會讓通脹升溫。
"We suspect the yield curve will steepen further with 10-year benchmark government borrowing costs likely to test 1.5% in 2021 while the Federal Reserve keeps short-term borrowing costs pinned down close to zero," Knightley stated.
President-elect Joe Biden is also likely to push for more stimulus next year, the economist added.
奈特利說：“我們懷疑，隨著十年期基準政府借貸成本可能在2021年測試1.5％，而美聯儲將短期借貸成本固定在接近零的水平，收益率曲線會進一步趨於陡峭。” 經濟學家補充說，當選總統喬·拜登（Joe Biden）也可能在明年推動更多刺激經濟措施。
"Biden will be primarily focused on creating work for the 10 million people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic and are yet to find employment. That means we are likely to see another substantial fiscal stimulus focused on infrastructure and energy. The outcome of the two Georgia Senate seat run-off elections on 5 January will determine the scale. Current polling points to Democrat victories, which would give Biden the green-light to go big given his party would control Congress," Knightley pointed out.
“拜登將主要致力於為因大流行而失業但尚未找到工作的一千萬人創造工作。這意味著我們很可能會看到針對基礎設施和能源的另一項實質性財政刺激措施。 1月5日舉行的兩次佐治亞州參議院席位選舉將決定選舉規模。目前的民意測驗表明民主黨取得了勝利，這將使拜登獲得更大的成功，因為他的政黨將控制國會。
The dollar's depreciation is likely to last the next couple of years, said Capital Economics U.S. economist Andrew Hunter.
Capital Economics美國經濟學家安德魯·亨特（Andrew Hunter）表示，美元的貶值可能會在未來幾年持續。
"Real interest rates look like they will continue to fall, as inflation picks up, and the Fed will continue to keep its rates low," Hunter explained. "The other main factor is that stocks continue to rise, and risk appetite is improving. This will coincide with weakening dollar."
亨特解釋說：“隨著通貨膨脹的加劇，實際利率似乎將繼續下降，而美聯儲將繼續保持低利率。” “另一個主要因素是股市繼續上漲，風險偏好正在改善。這將與美元走弱相吻合。”
The more risk-on the investor sentiment gets, the more likely it is for the money to flow out of the U.S. and into emerging markets, analysts noted.
分析師指出，投資者情緒風險越大，資金從美國流出並流入新興市場的可能性就越大。
OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said that as the global economic recovery unfolds, the greenback will see "significant weakness."
OANDA高級市場分析師愛德華·莫亞（Edward Moya）表示，隨著全球經濟復甦的展開，美元將出現“明顯的疲軟”。
"Second half of the year is when the outlook will improve for emerging markets. This will provide further acceleration of many carry trades that use the U.S. dollar as the funding currency, and it will have a snowball effect. The dollar will continue to slide on the belief that the Fed will be the last to tighten and emerging markets will raise rates sooner," Moya said.
“今年下半年是新興市場前景改善的時候。這將進一步加速許多使用美元作為籌資貨幣的套利交易，並將產生滾雪球效應。美元將繼續下滑。相信美聯儲將是最後一次加息，而新興市場將盡快加息。”
By Anna Golubova
For Kitco News
引用來源: Kitco NEWS
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